Key Players in the Harmonic Gear Reducer Industry for Humanoid Robots

Harmonic gear reducers are currently the mainstream solution for joint rotation actuators in humanoid robots.

They offer advantages such as compact size, low weight, high motion accuracy, and the ability to operate effectively in confined spaces. However, compared to RV reducers and precision planetary reducers, they have lower load capacity. Currently, the load requirements for humanoid robots are relatively low, but there are high demands for actuator size, weight, and control precision, making harmonic gear reducers the predominant choice for joint rotation actuators in humanoid robots.

The humanoid robot market may bring over a trillion yuan in new opportunities for harmonic gear reducers.

Referencing Tesla's approach, if we assume a breakthrough from zero to one in humanoid robots starting in 2024, and that the prices of harmonic gear reducers decline gradually with increased usage, projections suggest that by 2030, the production of humanoid robots may reach 660,000 units. This corresponds to a market for harmonic gear reducers growing from 90 million yuan in 2024 to 11.5 billion yuan. In the long term, as the production of humanoid robots scales up to tens of millions, the market for harmonic gear reducers could reach hundreds of billions.

Harmonic gear reducers can be categorized into two main types based on the design of the flexible wheel: cup-type and hat-type.

They can also be classified by the level of integration of their components into component-type and module-type (assembly-type). In addition to the standard hat-type and cup-type harmonic gear reducers, there are many derivative models, including high-torque types (which can withstand higher torques), short-cylinder types (thinner profiles), ultra-light types (lighter weight), hollow types (for hat-type products with internal cavities for routing), and input shaft types (for hat-type products with built-in input shafts).

From a market share perspective, the global gear reducer industry is dominated by Japanese manufacturers, with accelerated domestic substitution. In 2021, Japanese leader Harmonic Drive held over 80% of the global market share. However, in recent years, with the rise of domestic industrial robot manufacturers, there has been a clear trend towards domestic substitution. Companies like Leaderdrive Harmonic and Laifual Harmonic have made significant production breakthroughs, gradually increasing their market share. By 2023, the combined market share of Harmonic Drive and NIDEC-SHIMPO in China had dropped to about 45%.

Currently, domestic companies are competitive with Harmonic Drive in certain strength metrics, though there remains some gap in precision metrics. Additionally, there are significant differences in product range completeness and the number of patents. In terms of torque, Harmonic Drive's products have a peak torque range from 0.22 Nm to 6175 Nm, while only Leaderdrive Harmonic and FDROBOT are relatively close domestically. In terms of patent numbers, Harmonic Drive leads by a wide margin due to years of research investment, with Leaderdrive Harmonic holding the highest number among domestic companies. Performance comparisons show that some domestic firms have already matched or exceeded Harmonic Drive in average load torque and instantaneous maximum torque. In terms of precision metrics, such as angular transmission accuracy, domestic companies have largely reached levels comparable to Harmonic Drive, but there remains a gap in maximum backlash.